after two years of port congestion and container shortages, shipping disruptions are easing as export demand weakens and global economic conditions soften. Container freight rates, which soared to record prices during the worst of the epidemic, have been falling rapidly, and as spot container freight rates from Asia to North America plummet below post-pandemic levels, a large number of new tonnages will drive overcapacity in the container shipping industry, and the most profitable days of ocean carriers are over.
freight rates on the Asia-West route have plummeted from a high of $20000/FEU a year ago, according to the latest data from major shipping indices, the decline in US-West freight rates has not slowed and the market continues to weaken, suggesting that US-West freight rates could fall to around $1500 in 2019 in the coming weeks. In fact, according to feedback, the market has 1500 US dollars.
"freight rates from Asia to the United States have fallen by about $700 a week over the past few months, but have doubled in the past four weeks," Glickman Eli, Zim's chief executive. Freight rates have been falling for the past six months, but have fallen faster in the past four weeks, he added.
The Drurri Composite World Container Index shows that the key benchmark for container prices is $3689 per 40-foot container. After 32 consecutive weeks of decline, the Asia to the U.S. West Coast rate is down about 80% from last year, to about $1,750 per FEU.
investment research firm Jefferies (Jefferies) predicted in a Nov. 20 report that contract rates will decline in 2023 and the industry is expected to return to losses in the second half of next year. Maritime analyst Druri estimates that the effective net increase in container capacity in 2023 will be 11.3 per cent, while demand will grow by only 1.9 per cent; operators' capacity management strategies will be put to the test.
Hapr-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said at a conference in early November that container shipping companies were on a "bumpy ride" but the industry would not return to 2016 loss scale and long-term rates would not be lower than costs.
October Asia to the United States sea container traffic fell to 1,492,832 (20-foot container), compared with the same month last year decreased by 18%.
the decline in U.S. imports from Asia accelerated in October to the lowest level in 20 months. Trans-Pacific shipping lines have accelerated capacity cuts in recent weeks, with Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Company and Yixing Integrated Shipping Services suspending Asia-US East Coast routes in mid-November.
the shipping industry risks still exist, we should keep up with the trend of the times, actively adjust the strategy, seize the opportunity.